Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing 8 to 9 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. USDA reported a private export sale of 160,020 MT of corn to Mexico for 18/19 delivery. This morning’s FAS Export Sales report indicated 1.384 MMT for 18/19 corn export bookings during the week of 9/13. That exceeded expectations and was more than 162.63% larger than the same week last year. Mexico purchased 344,600 MT, with South Korea buying 204,300 MT. There was also 9,653 MT in 19/20 sales. A Chinese auction from state reserves saw sales of ~3 MMT on Thursday, totaling 75.45% of the offered amount. The 6-10 day outlook shows above average chances for moisture.

DEC 18 Corn is at $3.54 3/4, up 9 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.66 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

MAY 19 Corn is at $3.75 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents

JUL 19 Corn is at $3.81, up 8 cents

Soybean futures are trading 17 to 19 cents higher at midday, supported by short covering and good export numbers. China is planning to trim their average tariff rate on imports from trading partners as soon as Oct according to a Bloomberg report, though no word on if it includes the US. Soybean meal is up $4/ton, while soy oil is 31 points in the green. Export sales for 18/19 soybeans totaled 917,556 MT in the week that ended on 9/13, slightly above the range of trade estimates. That was well short of last year, but above the week prior. Sales to China were shown at a net reduction of 4,000 MT, with Mexico the lead buyer of 165,600 MT. Sales of 19/20 soybeans were reported at 80,000 MT. Soy meal sales totaled 137,356 MT, with 18,122 MT in soy oil sales. Showers over the next week or so could slow harvest.

NOV 18 Soybeans are at $8.49, up 19 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.61 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $8.75, up 17 3/4 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans are at $8.87 3/4, up 17 1/2 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal is at $311.20, up $4.80,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.67, up $0.42

Wheat futures are steady to 2 cents in the green in most contracts on Thursday. Weakness in the US dollar index is providing a little support at midday, along with strength in corn. The weekly Export Sales report showed all wheat bookings during the week of 9/13 at 468,433 MT, on the high side of trade estimates. That was a 20.9% jump from the week prior and 52.5% larger than the same week in 2017. The Philippines purchased 80,000 MT, with Indonesia buying 70,000 MT and Vietnam in for 61,000 MT. We are now through week 15, with still no reported sales for 19/20.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.23 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, up 1 cent,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.88 1/2, up 1/2 cent

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby Oct down 10 cents and other contracts higher. Feeder cattle futures are up 25 to 72.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index on September 18 was down 54 cents at $153.08. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were up 76 cents to $205.01, while Select boxes were $1.29 higher at $195.47. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 353,000 head through Wednesday. That is down 4,000 from last week but 7,000 head above the same week in 2017. Analysts are expecting (Reuters survey) that the USDA will show September 1 Cattle on Feed at 11.067 million head, up 5.4% from last year. Export sales of 15,894 MT for beef in the week of 9/13 were reported this morning.

OCT 18 Cattle are at $113.000, down $0.100,

DEC 18 Cattle are at $118.125, up $0.150,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $121.925, up $0.075,

SEP 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.250, up $0.725

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle are at $158.250, up $0.375

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle are at $157.975, up $0.250

Lean hog futures are up $1.40 in nearby Oct, with other contracts 25 to 75 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.41 on September 18 to $55.99. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 40 cents lower at $77.99 in the Thursday morning FOB plant report. The national base hog carcass value was up $1.16 @ $57.39 on Thursday morning. Week to date FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was estimated at 1.272 million head. That is down 66,000 head from last week and 87,000 head from the same week last year. Wednesday’s run was bigger than a week ago, but still 23,000 head below the same day in 2017. Pork export sales during the week that ended on 9/13 were reported at 22,856 MT.

OCT 18 Hogs are at $61.400, up $1.400,

DEC 18 Hogs are at $57.650, down $0.250

FEB 19 Hogs are at $65.200, down $0.750

Cotton futures are showing 1 to 25 point losses at midday, despite a lower US dollar index. This morning’s Export Sales report indicated that 97,733 RB of 18/19 upland cotton was sold in the week of 9/13, with 32,912 RB in sales of the 19/20 crop. Sales to China were reported at net reductions of -3 RB for 18/19 and 440 RB in 19/20 sales. Export shipments were seen at 16,174 RB to China. Pima sales totaled 3,300 RB for 18/19, with 600 RB to China. The Cotlook A index was down 265 points from the previous day at 88.15 cents/lb on September 19. The USDA weekly AWP is currently at 73.79 cents/lb, and will be adjusted lower today.

OCT 18 Cotton is at 79.62, down 1 point,

DEC 18 Cotton is at 78.47, down 25 points

MAR 19 Cotton is at 78.94, down 21 points

MAY 19 Cotton is at 79.65, down 22 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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