Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Friday session with most contracts steady to 1/2 cent higher, as Dec expired at $3.76 3/4. USDA reported a private export sale of 125,000 MT of corn to Japan this morning. Corn export commitments through December 6 were 16.3% larger than last year. Export Commitments are now 44% of the USDA projection, with the normal pace running 49%. CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report indicated that money managers in corn futures and options held a net long position of 98,617 contracts as of Tuesday, a move of +44,872 contract on the week. Argentina’s corn crop is estimated at 46.7% planted, lagging the 53.8% average pace according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Trade rumors this morning suggested China may turn to US corn purchases after the first of the year (reports were ~3MMT).

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, up 1/2 cent

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, up 1/2 cent

Soybean futures closed Friday with losses of 6 to 6 3/4 cents, despite another export sale to China. Dec soy meal expired at $309.40/ton, with soy oil at 28.39 cents/lb. Separate soybean export sales of 300,000 MT to China and another 130,000 MT to Unknown both for 18/19 delivery were reported through the USDA’s daily reporting system this morning. This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed specs in soybean futures and options trimming their net short position by 6,525 contracts as of 12/11 to -11,068 contracts. Analysts estimated Monday’s NOPA report will show 168.444 mbu of soybeans crushed by its members during November. Soy oil stocks are projected to total 1.503 billion pounds. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that 68.8% of the Argentine soybean crop is planted, above the 66.9% average pace. They also pegged the initial conditions at 19.1% gd/ex, vs. 49.3% gd/ex last year.

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.13 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.27, down 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.43, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $309.40, unch,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.39, down $0.25

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures were a penny to 6 cents lower in most contracts on Friday, as Dec futures expired today. Wheat 18/19 export commitments are now just 9.5% behind this time last year. They are now 60% of USDA’s newly updated projection of 1 bbu, with the normal pace at 77%. Spec funds in KC wheat futures and options flipped back to a net long position by a move of 4,874 contracts as of Wednesday to a net long position of 2,429 contracts. They trimmed 6,005 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat to take it to -22,402 contracts. Russia’s ag ministry estimates that the country’s 18/19 wheat crop totaled 70 MMT. BAGE estimates that Argentina’s wheat crop is now 75.2% mature, with harvest even with the average pace at 57.4%. They put condition @ 35.8% good/ex, compared to 63.9% good/ex last year.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30, down 6 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.84, down 4 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled with most contracts steady to 45 cents lower. Nearby Dec was up 12.5 cents as it has to stick close to cash. Feeder cattle futures were 10 to 40 cents lower on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was up 51 cents on December 13 at $146.91. Wholesale beef prices were mixed this afternoon, with the Ch/Select spread narrowing to $7.82. Choice boxes were down $1.51 at $210.96, with the Select cutout value $2.14 higher at $203.14. USDA estimated this week’s cattle slaughter at 654,00 head through Saturday. That is 7,000 below last week and 26,000 head larger than the same week last year. Most cash trade on Friday was around $119 in to round out the week.

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $119.575, up $0.125,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $122.400, down $0.450,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $124.500, down $0.300,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.575, down $0.400

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.775, down $0.150

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.250, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were mixed on Friday, with Dec expiring at $54.95. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 18 cents from the previous day @ $55.36 on December 12. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.37 at $71.80. The national base cash hog carcass value was 29 cents higher at a weighted average of $46.71. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for this week through Saturday at 2.612 million head. That is 54,000 head larger than last week and 36,000 head above a year ago. Spec funds in lean hog futures and options backed off their net long position by 3,563 contracts as of 12/11 to a net position of 35,506 contracts.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $54.950, up $0.150,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $64.500, down $0.325

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $70.050, down $0.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw 19 to 32 point gains on Friday. Cotton commitments for export are now lagging a year ago by 2.5%. Compared to the USDA projected 15 million bales, they are 71% of that number vs. the 62% average for early December. Money managers in cotton futures and options trading added a net of just 85 contracts to their net long position as of 12/11 at 38,187 contracts. The Cotlook A index was down 5 points from the previous day on Dec 13 at 88.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 69.77, good through next Thursday and up 43 points from the previous week.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.600, up 19 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 80.670, up 24 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 81.340, up 32 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.