Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning in the KC and CHI contracts, while spring wheat futures are fractionally mixed. They were down 1 to 2 1/4 cents in most KC and CBT contracts on Friday, with MPLS 5 to 6 cents lower. All three markets saw gains in the Dec contracts for the week, with CBT up 2%, KC 1.74% higher, and MPLS 1.79% in the green. Total export commitments for wheat have picked up over the past few weeks but are still lagging LY by 22%. USDA is projecting a 13.76% increase in exports from 17/18 to 18/19. Combined shipments and outstanding sales are now 37% of that projection of 1.025 bbu, with the typical pace at 55% by this time. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options flipped 19,794 contracts to a net short position of -1,379 contracts as of Tuesday. Their net position in KC futures and options was still long 37,084 contracts, but 6,455 fewer than the week prior. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their production estimate by 0.4 to 69.2 MMT for 2018 wheat production on Friday. Consultant SovEcon their estimate of Russia’s wheat exports by 0.9 to 33 MMT.




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